Wednesday, October 17, 2012

IIM-A CRACKS BOX OFFICE CODE Devises Formula To Forecast Film Collections


 As the term ‘Rs 100 crore club’ replaces the good old ‘silver jubilee’ to describe a super hit, Bollywood has got a new formula to forecast collections during the all-important opening weekend. 
    Students of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA) say they have cracked the blockbuster code to help Bollywood predict a film’s future at the box office — at least during the first three days. 
    A study by the team — visiting faculty Bharathan Kandaswamy and final year students of IIM-A — say that irrespective of the genre and content of a film, the pre-release marketing budget decides the opening weekend success for a film. The team has devised a set of mathematical and statistical models to figure out the correlation coefficient between a film’s marketing budget and its success in the first three days of its release. 
    “Our findings suggest the marketing budget of a film and its success are correlated. The research is aimed at reducing the opening risks of a film. The model has been developed around how firms decide their budget for a film,” said Kandaswamy, who teaches the course ‘Contemporary film industry: A business perspective’ at IIM-A. 
    The study looked at 50 Hindi films released in the last 10 years. Among others, films like 3 idiots, Cocktail, Ghajini, Gangs of Wasseypur, Kahaani, Ek Tha Tiger and Bodyguard were studied. Marketing spends for movie trailers on television, out-ofhome advertising, promotion on websites and celebrity promotions were taken into account. 
    Kandaswamy said a typical 
Hindi film with a budget of 35-40 crore should utilize stars more effectively in promoting a film. “Even if a film is made with a tight budget of 10 crore, it should spend on marketing to succeed in the opening weekend,” he said. “Any film with 10 crore budget and no star should spend 7-8 crore while a film with 50-100 crore budget and a star can spend 10-12 crore for promotion as small budget films require more attention as about 250 Hindi films release every year,” Kandaswamy said. 
    However, the film’s success in the first 12-14 shows doesn’t mean it will be a hit. “A film may slip at the box office after a successful opening. The marketing budget will have an impact in first few days but that doesn’t mean it is a hit,” he said. 
DEFINING HITS 

• Films with a high marketing budget and successful in the first three weeks are called blockbusters or super hits 

• Films with a low marketing budget, which fail to pull audiences to the theatre initially yet run for 40-50 weeks later, are called sleepers 

• Movies that fail in the first week itself are called bombs or flops

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