As the term ‘Rs 100 crore club’ replaces the good old ‘silver jubilee’ to describe a super hit, Bollywood has got a new formula to forecast collections during the all-important opening weekend.
Students of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA) say they have cracked the blockbuster code to help Bollywood predict a film’s future at the box office — at least during the first three days.
A study by the team — visiting faculty Bharathan Kandaswamy and final year students of IIM-A — say that irrespective of the genre and content of a film, the pre-release marketing budget decides the opening weekend success for a film. The team has devised a set of mathematical and statistical models to figure out the correlation coefficient between a film’s marketing budget and its success in the first three days of its release.
“Our findings suggest the marketing budget of a film and its success are correlated. The research is aimed at reducing the opening risks of a film. The model has been developed around how firms decide their budget for a film,” said Kandaswamy, who teaches the course ‘Contemporary film industry: A business perspective’ at IIM-A.
The study looked at 50 Hindi films released in the last 10 years. Among others, films like 3 idiots, Cocktail, Ghajini, Gangs of Wasseypur, Kahaani, Ek Tha Tiger and Bodyguard were studied. Marketing spends for movie trailers on television, out-ofhome advertising, promotion on websites and celebrity promotions were taken into account.
Kandaswamy said a typical Hindi film with a budget of 35-40 crore should utilize stars more effectively in promoting a film. “Even if a film is made with a tight budget of 10 crore, it should spend on marketing to succeed in the opening weekend,” he said. “Any film with 10 crore budget and no star should spend 7-8 crore while a film with 50-100 crore budget and a star can spend 10-12 crore for promotion as small budget films require more attention as about 250 Hindi films release every year,” Kandaswamy said.
However, the film’s success in the first 12-14 shows doesn’t mean it will be a hit. “A film may slip at the box office after a successful opening. The marketing budget will have an impact in first few days but that doesn’t mean it is a hit,” he said. DEFINING HITS
• Films with a high marketing budget and successful in the first three weeks are called blockbusters or super hits
• Films with a low marketing budget, which fail to pull audiences to the theatre initially yet run for 40-50 weeks later, are called sleepers
• Movies that fail in the first week itself are called bombs or flops
Students of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA) say they have cracked the blockbuster code to help Bollywood predict a film’s future at the box office — at least during the first three days.
A study by the team — visiting faculty Bharathan Kandaswamy and final year students of IIM-A — say that irrespective of the genre and content of a film, the pre-release marketing budget decides the opening weekend success for a film. The team has devised a set of mathematical and statistical models to figure out the correlation coefficient between a film’s marketing budget and its success in the first three days of its release.
“Our findings suggest the marketing budget of a film and its success are correlated. The research is aimed at reducing the opening risks of a film. The model has been developed around how firms decide their budget for a film,” said Kandaswamy, who teaches the course ‘Contemporary film industry: A business perspective’ at IIM-A.
The study looked at 50 Hindi films released in the last 10 years. Among others, films like 3 idiots, Cocktail, Ghajini, Gangs of Wasseypur, Kahaani, Ek Tha Tiger and Bodyguard were studied. Marketing spends for movie trailers on television, out-ofhome advertising, promotion on websites and celebrity promotions were taken into account.
Kandaswamy said a typical Hindi film with a budget of 35-40 crore should utilize stars more effectively in promoting a film. “Even if a film is made with a tight budget of 10 crore, it should spend on marketing to succeed in the opening weekend,” he said. “Any film with 10 crore budget and no star should spend 7-8 crore while a film with 50-100 crore budget and a star can spend 10-12 crore for promotion as small budget films require more attention as about 250 Hindi films release every year,” Kandaswamy said.
However, the film’s success in the first 12-14 shows doesn’t mean it will be a hit. “A film may slip at the box office after a successful opening. The marketing budget will have an impact in first few days but that doesn’t mean it is a hit,” he said. DEFINING HITS
• Films with a high marketing budget and successful in the first three weeks are called blockbusters or super hits
• Films with a low marketing budget, which fail to pull audiences to the theatre initially yet run for 40-50 weeks later, are called sleepers
• Movies that fail in the first week itself are called bombs or flops
